Apartment Market in Serbia in 2024 — Prices, Statistics, Forecasts

In the second quarter of 2024, the Serbian real estate market showed an increase in activity for the first time in five quarters, despite an overall decline in transactions in the previous year. What factors are influencing the Serbian housing market, what is the price situation in different cities, and what are the prospects for investors — this is the subject of our detailed analysis.

About Increased Activity

Firstly, we should point out that 2021 and 2022 showed a high level of activity in the Serbian apartment market. According to the Republican Geodetic Institute of Serbia in 2021, 50,105 purchase and sale transactions were registered, which is 28.6% more than in 2020, while in 2022, 51,547 transactions with apartments were registered — this is 2.9% more than in 2021. The reason for such high activity in the market was affordable housing loans, growth in real incomes of the population, and a relatively stable economic situation in the country.

However, already in 2023, the apartment market has noticeably declined. Thus, according to the results of 2023, 41,909 transactions with apartments were registered, and the market showed a decline of 18.7%. The following factors were the reasons for the decline in activity: an increase in interest rates on housing loans; and an increase in housing prices; some experts also note a shortage of apartments on the market as reasons.

It is too early to judge what 2024 will be like on the Serbian apartment market, as the first quarter of this year showed results similar to the first quarter of last year. In turn, the second quarter of 2024 demonstrated an increase in activity both quarterly and yearly, for the first time in the past 5 quarters.

Thus, according to the Republican Geodetic Institute of Serbia, 11,532 transactions of purchase and sale of apartments were registered in the 2nd quarter of 2024, which is 7.4% more than in the 1st quarter of this year and 12.9% more than in the 2nd quarter of 2023. The cash turnover from the sale of apartments in the 2nd quarter of 2024 amounted to about 978 million EUR, which is 7.2% more than in the 1st quarter of 2024 and 16.4% more than in the 2nd quarter of 2023.

Among the regions of Serbia, the largest number of apartment transactions were registered in the country's capital Belgrade — 4350 transactions (37.7% of the total number of apartment transactions), which is 15.0% more than in Q1 2024 and 0.6% less than in Q2 2023.

Next in descending order are the regions of Vojvodina, Šumadija and Western Serbia, Southern and Eastern Serbia:

• Vojvodina region – 3291 transactions (28.5% of all apartment transactions), +20.8% compared to Q1 of this year and +14.0% compared to Q2 of 2023.
• Region of Šumadija and Western Serbia – 2612 transactions (22.7%), -0.6% compared to Q1 2024 and +9.7% compared to Q2 2023.
• Region of Southern and Eastern Serbia – 1279 transactions (11.1%), the change compared to the previous quarter was +19.3%, compared to Q2 2023 +16.7%.

About Housing Loans

From Q1 2019 to Q4 2022, 21% to 33% of all apartment transactions were made using credit funds. In 2020 and 2021, about a third of all apartment transactions were made using credit funds.

Then, starting from Q1 2022, the share of transactions using loans began to decrease, reaching its minimum in 2023, when in Q1-Q4 2023 the share of transactions using loans amounted to 17-19% of the total number of purchase and sale transactions. This happened because, from June 2021, the Central Bank of Serbia began to gradually raise the key rate, which naturally led to an increase in interest rates on housing loans.

In the 2nd quarter of 2024, the share of apartment transactions using credit funds was 23%. It is worth noting that the growth of 5 percentage points compared to the previous period occurred despite the fact that interest rates on housing loans remain at a fairly high level.

Among the 4 largest cities in Serbia, apartments were most often purchased on credit in Belgrade – 27.90% of all transactions with apartments in the quarter. Next were Novi Sad – 25.5%, Kragujevac – 24.9%, Niš – 23.3%.

About Changes in Apartment Prices

In Q2 2024, the apartment price index in Serbia was 164.56, showing a quarterly growth of 1.3%, and an annual growth of 4.7%. It is worth noting that starting from Q2 2022, there has been a tendency for apartment price growth in Serbia to slow down. Thus, if in 2022 the average quarterly growth rate was about 2.9%, then already in 2023 the average quarterly growth rate was 1.5%.

In terms of apartments on the primary and secondary markets, the following indices were established based on the results of the 2nd quarter of 2024:

• The price index for apartments on the primary market was 151.97, quarterly growth was 1.4%, and annual growth was 5.1%.
• The price index for apartments on the secondary market was 173.16, a quarterly increase of 1.2%, and an annual increase of 4.4%.

The following price indices for apartments in the primary and secondary markets have been established in the regions of Serbia:

• Capital – Belgrade. The price index for apartments on the primary market is 154.35, with quarterly growth of +0.8%, and annual growth of +4.6%. The price index on the secondary market is 174.82, with quarterly growth of +0.9%, and annual growth of +3.6%.
• Vojvodina region. The price index for apartments on the primary market is 162.08, with quarterly growth of +1.3%, and annual growth of +5.6%. The price index on the secondary market is 179.40, with quarterly growth of +0.9%, and annual growth of +3.9%.
• Region of Southern and Eastern Serbia. The price index of apartments on the primary market is 149.43, with quarterly growth of +3.5%, and annual growth of +8.7%. The price index on the secondary market is 177.57, with quarterly growth of +1.7%, and annual growth of +6.8%.
• Region of Šumadija and Western Serbia. The price index of apartments on the primary market is 137.54, with quarterly growth of +1.7%, and annual growth of +4.1%. The price index on the secondary market is 157.87, with quarterly growth of +1.9%, and annual growth of +5.7%.

In the second quarter of 2024, average prices in apartment purchase and sale transactions in the largest cities of Serbia showed growth in the primary and secondary markets both quarterly and yearly.

In Belgrade, the average price per square meter on the primary market was 2,434 EUR/sq.m, showing an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 0.9% compared to Q2 2023. On the secondary market, the average price was 2,190 EUR/sq.m, which is 3.2% more than in Q1 2024 and 5.1% more than in Q2 2023.

Below are the average prices per square meter on the primary and secondary market by Belgrade districts.

In the 2nd quarter of 2024, the average price per square meter in the city of Novi Sad on the primary market was 2000 EUR/sq.m, +3.4% compared to the 1st quarter of this year and +15.4% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2023. On the secondary market, the average price was 1958 EUR/sq.m, +1.3% compared to the 1st quarter of 2024 and +2.2% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2023.

In the city of Niš, the following average prices were established: on the primary market — 1505 EUR/sq.m (+2.0% compared to Q1 2024 and +8.7% compared to Q2 2023), on the secondary market — 1338 EUR/sq.m (+10.8% compared to Q1 2024 and +6.6% compared to Q2 2023).

In the city of Kragujevac, the following average prices were established: on the primary market — 1400 EUR/sq.m (+3.1% compared to Q1 2024 and +7.5% compared to Q2 2023), on the secondary market — 1092 EUR/sq.m (+4.3% compared to Q1 2024 and +7.1% compared to Q2 2023).

According to the results of the 2nd quarter of 2024, the Serbian apartment market demonstrated growth in activity for the first time in the past five quarters. Since the Republican Geodetic Institute of Serbia has not yet published data for the 3rd quarter of this year, it is too early to say whether the number of apartment transactions by the end of 2024 will exceed last year's figures. 

However, there are prerequisites for further growth in activity on the market:  growing incomes of the population and increased demand; a constantly developing market; for potential investors, the fact that the Serbian market at this stage of its development has cheaper prices compared to other European countries is also attractive.