Real estate market in Warsaw is surprising — the demand for housing is so high that some developers are raising the price of new buildings literally every week. Now you can constantly see apartments on the primary market for € 4,000 — € 4,500 per square meter, they are pulling up housing and the secondary market. Galina Kharlamova, realtor and market expert, told us about the prices in the nearest future.

Briefly about the latest news on the real estate market in Poland

Not so long ago it became known that the bill «the first home for young families» with a mortgage at 2% was approved. In short, it means that buyers who have not owned any property in Poland, will be able to take advantage of state support in the form of a mortgage at 2%. There are many additional nuances and conditions (for example, the cost of such housing shall not exceed 800,000 PLN for a family of 4), but it is still unknown which of them will be finally adopted.

High demand in the real estate market in Poland forms not only the local population, but also foreigners. According to official data, now in Poland there are 1.66 million people with residence permits. Most of them (1,36 million) are Ukrainians. They are followed by Belarusians, Georgians, Russians, Germans, Indians and Vietnamese.

This much interest in the Polish real estate market from foreigners can be understood from the published statistics: from 1 January to 14 November 2022, foreigners have bought 9,900 apartments in Poland. The Ukrainians bought 4,275 apartments in Poland, second place is held by Germany, whose citizens have bought 1,118 apartments. In third place are the Belarusians, who have bought 889 properties. Next come the Russians, who bought 276 apartments in Poland in 2022, and the Swedes, who bought 239 apartments.

«Prices in new building are going up literally every week»

— The price of real estate in Warsaw is rising unbelievably fast. Now you can buy new buildings in the Mokotów area for €5,500 per square meter, and such figures, to put it mildly, are surprising.

— Just two months ago, we didn’t know if the bill «First Housing for Young Families» would be passed. Now the situation has cleared up because it was adopted, and it significantly affects the real estate market — said Galina Kharlamova. — As a result, buyers who want to take the loan at 2%, choose properties and wait until July when they can apply to banks. But prices are not waiting for July, and they have already started rising.

There are developers who are raising prices per square meter every week, anticipating a rapid spike in real estate prices in July. And in this light, I think that €5,500 per square meter is not the limit. I’m sure we will see prices even higher in the summer and fall.
Of course not all buyers have taken a wait-and-see attitude. There are investors who in this situation are buying housing with cash in order to have time before the price increases. They tend to make a decision quickly, because now the phrase «time is money» is real as never before.

For example, there are two large business centers in Warsaw: Warsaw Manhattan in the Wola district, and the so-called Warsaw Mordor in the Mokotów district. In the area around these business centers, housing prices have always been high and have always been rising. The main reason is the same: office workers want to live close to work, and young people willingly rent a flat there, because both the work is near, and «life» is also there. But even in Mokotów and Wola districts, you can find apartments for very different prices. There is a developer who currently sells apartments for 20,000 PLN (about € 4,300 per square meter), but right next to this complex, last week, me and my client bought an apartment for 16,000 per square meter (about € 3,400). It is also a great complex with security, fenced territory, playgrounds, etc.. In addition, I would consider new buildings priced around 23,000-25,000 PLN (about € 4,900-5,300) to be in the premium segment, which is also a good investment today.

In general, all buyers have already accepted the fact that prices will rise in the near future. But no one knows exactly what the price will be in December, and everyone is afraid to predict it.

— Do you personally have the feeling that a so-called «soap bubble» appeared in the market, and that it will burst in one or two years’ time?

— A «bubble situation» in the market occurs when the demand for real estate is maintained artificially. And here, no matter who says what, not only foreigners are active in the market now but Poles are also buying homes. Yes, the middle class has become more difficult, but this does not mean that they have left the market. Most home buyers (both foreign and local) now want to protect their savings from inflation. That said, not everyone can devote an enormous amount of time to understanding the stock market, securities or stocks. It’s much easier for them to buy real estate. In this option, buyers know that investing in the «golden concrete» in the center of Warsaw will always bring their profits: the apartment can be sold or leased and bring income. In general, it is a very traditional story for Poland which is investment in real estate.

— So you think there is no «bubble» situation?

— The question of whether there is a «bubble» or not, you better ask our financiers, economists, politicians, and so on. As a realtor I can tell you what’s going on in the real estate market and what you can expect. In my opinion, in July there will be a rush in the market, which will inevitably lead to an increase in apartment prices. All the other factors which also have a great influence on the market are difficult to predict. For example, just yesterday we saw that interest rates have remained the same, but inflation continues to rise. Next year there will be presidential elections in Poland, which means that the authorities will try to earn people’s loyalty in one way or another. If you analyze it all together, you would think that the situation of such a high demand for housing in Poland (and Warsaw, in particular) is somewhat artificial. But more and more foreigners come to this country every year, and they also need a place to live. Plus, the Poles themselves, as I said above, are actively investing in real estate. Add to this a constant shortage of quality housing in Warsaw: there is simply not enough time to build as much housing as people need. All of these processes organically spur the growth in demand. 

For example, not so long ago, my client made a clear request: you need to buy a two-bedroom apartment of 70 square meters in Żoliborz within a budget of about 1.5 million zlotys (about € 320,000). And can you imagine that I have not been able to find a suitable option for a month, although the request is not too complicated, and the budget is good.

To summarize, each buyer has to decide: wait for a hypothetical «bubble» to burst in a year or two or three and prices decrease, or buy now before prices rise by another 10-20-30%.