The «First Home» program has just been launched, in which you can get a loan from banks at a lower rate. And even now, just two weeks after the launch of this program, experts are talking about a new increase in the cost of a square meter of housing. About the situation on the real estate market in Poland read in the article.

In the situation context. Briefly about the main news

On July 1 in Poland the program «First Home» (Pierwsze Mieszkanie) began. Within the framework of this program «safe loan» is introduced with a subsidy to the installments from the state budget. According to the authorities, this should stabilize the real estate market in Poland and help those who really need housing.

The program requires certain conditions to be met to participate:

  • People under 45 claiming their first apartment. Those who already own property cannot participate in the program
  • The loan can be taken in the amount of 500,000 zlotys (about $113,000) for one household and 600,000 zlotys (about $135,000) for parents, married couples or parents raising a child.
  • It will be possible to use the program «Apartment without own contribution». If the own savings are used, they can not exceed 200,000 zlotys. This means that the maximum value of the property under this program cannot exceed 800,000 zlotys.

At the same time, the demand for apartments and houses in Warsaw (and in Poland in general) has been growing for several years in a row. In total, from January 1 to November 14, 2022, foreigners bought 9,900 apartments in Poland. To be fair, it should be said that some buyers at the beginning of the year have taken a wait-and-see attitude, so that they can use the credit at a reduced interest.

Even before the start of the program, some vendors began to raise real estate prices, realizing that after the start of the program, the demand for housing in Poland will rise again. Experts predicted not market stabilization, but on the contrary, an increase in player activity and a significant rise in housing prices.

Real estate prices in Poland will rise for everyone

The resource money.pl informs that the price of apartments in Warsaw has grown significantly over the past few months, and especially strongly after the start of the program «First Home». The cost of some facilities in some cases has risen to the very maximum level of the subsidy program. And, according to experts, prices will continue to rise.

— Prices will rise not only for those who can get help. They will rise for everyone. (...) Real estate will also be more expensive for those who apply for a loan in two or three years. The biggest beneficiaries will be those who catch the first tranches of aid, — wrote freelance journalist, labor market analyst Camille Feiffer.

The Facebook loan-themed groups are extremely active right now. Internet users are outraged. In some cases, the sellers raised the prices to 700-800 thousand zloty — the maximum limits provided in the state program of mortgage subsidy.

— To make it clear, we are not dealing with a cosmic price increase of 20-30%. Programs that support the demand for housing are good and necessary. However, they must go hand in hand with supply support, — construction — says Marek Zuber of the WSB Academy.

As Marc Zuber notes, the number of apartments built has been decreasing for two years, especially in large cities. This is primarily due to the lack of land for investment and rising prices for construction materials. At the same time, Zuber notes that inflation, interest rates rise, and unaffordable loans have only exacerbated the problem by causing the collapse of the mortgage market.

In early July, during a press conference, the Minister of Development and Technology, Valdemar Pobede, was asked whether prices would rise due to the start of the government program. He replied that it was difficult to understand the reason for the price increase in the program.

Buda reported that 240,000 apartments were built in a year, and as part of the program it will be possible to buy 30-40 thousand apartments, including half of them from developers. Like the above-mentioned expert, the Minister noted that the crux of the problem is the lack of land for construction and he called for "investing more resources for housing construction in zoning plans". According to Minister Buda, such a measure only in Warsaw will reduce housing prices by about 15%.

«If 50-60 thousand people apply, all of them will get this support»

— Applications for "safe loan" can be submitted to banks from July 3. At the moment there are 4,000 applications, — said Buda Minister on radio ZET. — At the same time, 12,000 people downloaded the forms, asked for a loan or had a talk with a consultant.

The head of the Ministry of Development reminded that this year there are no restrictions when it comes to support within the program:

— If 50-60 thousand people apply, all of them will get this support, — he said.

At the moment, in order to help buyers and sellers of real estate, a free portal with housing prices was created. This will be the official website where the transaction amounts will be published, i.e. the prices of notarial deeds will be published on a permanent basis. Statistics should include prices of apartments and houses in all areas of Poland.