Poland, like many other countries, is facing serious demographic challenges. According to the forecasts of the Central Statistical Office of Poland, by 2060, the country's population may decrease by almost a third, reaching 27 million people. Let's take a look at what factors play a role in this process.

Current demographic situation

At the end of last year, there were 37.7 million people living in Poland. It is predicted that by 2060, the population will decrease by between 8% and 29%, depending on the scenario.

Declining birth rate

From the beginning of this year until June 2023, 139.5 thousand children were born in Poland, which is the lowest number since the end of World War II. Experts predict that the situation will only worsen. According to the pessimistic scenario, by 2060, the number of newborns may fall by half and amount to only about 152 thousand.

The decline in the fertility rate is also having an impact on the demographic picture. In 2022, the rate was 1.26, and based on projections, it could fall to 1.19. Note that these figures do not even meet the minimum requirements for simple generational replacement, which requires a coefficient of 2.1.

Impact of the abortion law

The decrease in the number of women of reproductive age also contributes. In recent years, changes in Polish legislation, including the tightening of the abortion law, have had a negative impact on the demographic situation. These changes may become an obstacle to family planning and increase the risk of illegal abortions.

The role of immigration

To offset population decline and support economic activity, Poland needs to actively attract immigrants. At the end of June 2023, the country had more than one million foreign workers, mostly Ukrainians. However, competition with neighboring countries such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Germany could exacerbate the situation and make Poland less attractive to potential immigrants.

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Ageing population

With a decrease in the number of able-bodied citizens and an increase in pensioners, Poland faces serious challenges in the fields of health and social protection. The number of people aged 65 and over could increase by more than 80%, putting significant pressure on the health care and pension systems.

By 2022, for every 100 able-bodied people, there were 70 incapable of working, but according to the “medium” scenario, by 2060, the ratio could look like this: 105 able-bodied people for every 100 incapable of working.