🏘️ Thailand’s residential real estate market showed the first signs of recovery in Q1 2026. According to Reuters, citing the state-owned Government Housing Bank, the number of housing ownership transfers increased by 11.2% year-on-year.

What the current statistics show:

— the total value of transactions increased by only 3.1%;
— new mortgage loans rose by 11.1%, reaching approximately THB 122 billion;
— demand is shifting toward more affordable housing;
— the market may still show a slight decline by the end of 2026.

🏦 The recovery is being supported by government measures. Among the key factors, Reuters cites extended easing measures, reduced fees for certain housing categories, and buyer incentives. Earlier, the Bank of Thailand had already allowed financing of up to 100% of the property value for all housing contracts.

⚡ The main external risk for the market is a potential energy shock. Government Housing Bank warns that rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could increase pressure in several areas at once: higher construction costs, faster inflation, weaker consumer sentiment, and reduced real purchasing power. For a market that has only just started to recover, this factor could quickly limit the effect of government support.

How this may affect the market:

— demand will concentrate in the more affordable price segment;
— developers will have to focus more actively on smaller formats and more flexible pricing;
— premium projects will depend more heavily on foreign buyers and investment demand;
— rising construction costs may limit developers’ ability to offer discounts;
— banks will remain cautious due to the high household debt burden.

📌 In 2026, Thailand’s housing market is likely to recover unevenly: transaction volumes may grow, but transaction value and prices will lag until buyers’ incomes begin to recover faster than inflation.

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